Pennsylvania is another one of the swing states to watch this year. Long considered a safe blue state, it was a shock in 2016 when it was called for Trump—he won Pennsylvania by just 44,292 votes, or 0.72%. It was a sign of things to come, as Michigan and Wisconsin were called for Trump (with similar tiny margins) in the hours that followed.
Biden is currently leading by 6 points in Pennsylvania, but it’s still going to be a tense one to watch on election night—either the start of a real blue wave or a signal that Trump has held on to more working class voters than expected.
As is the case with several other states, registration and turnout are crucial for the Democrats in Pennsylvania. Turnout has been below 65% in every presidential election since 1968, with the lowest point at 48.9% in 1996. For the first time, voters have been allowed to request absentee mail in ballots for any reason, and early voting started in mid-September, so the state has certainly done what it can to help turnout. Now it’s up to Pennsylvanians to turnout and elect the ‘Scrappy kid from Scranton’!