Election countdown: 19 days

New York is a solid blue state with 29 electoral votes, tied for 3rd most votes with Florida, behind Texas (38) and California (55). The 2016 election featured 2 candidates who lived in NY—Trump was born in Queens and lived in Manhattan at Trump Tower, but former NY Senator Clinton, who moved to Chappaqua after leaving the White House in 2001, won the state by 22 points (Trump has since changed his residency to Florida). Biden is currently leading by around 30 points.

It’s also home to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. If the Democrats flip enough seats, he could become Senate Majority Leader, taking over from Kentucky Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. Both Schumer and McConnell are unpopular—a recent Pew Research Center survey found that very few voters have positive views of them: 22% for McConnell and 25% for Schumer.

If Biden wins and the Democrats flip the Senate, we’ll have the same situation we saw in 2008. With a supportive legislative branch, Obama was able to pass the Affordable Care Act and recession recovery deals, among other things. When people didn’t vote in the 2010 midterms, the Republican-dominated legislative branch resisted and stalled everything Obama tried to do. McConnell joked that he was the “grim reaper”, as his desk is where bills go to die. If Biden wins but the Democrats don’t manage to flip the Senate, we’re going to see a scenario like 2010-2016, where Congressional resistance prevents Biden from accomplishing his agenda.

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